NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Picks: Carnell Tate's Odds Are A Value
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NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Picks: Carnell Tate's Odds Are A Value

Justin Carlucci highlights his three favorite bets for the 2026 NFL OROY award.

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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year picks for 2026-27? Let’s go. It’s been an exciting offseason, and we’re ready to ramp things up. Let’s take a look at two guys who should be in the thick of the hunt, and one long shot who could suddenly become important at work with a little luck.

Before we dive in, it’s helpful to zoom out and look at the last 10 recipients of this award:

Picks For 2026 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

TEN_titans-logo.svgCarnell Tate (+650)

We start with Carnell Tate at +650, the No. 4 overall pick of the Tennessee Titans.

It shocked most of the draft world, but nobody inside the Titans building was surprised. They were thrilled. Second-year quarterback Cam Ward and new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll got a shiny new toy, and this team desperately needed a true alpha target earner. 

Despite some nice rookie flashes from guys like Chimere Dike and Gunnar Helm, Ward was still forced to spread the ball around to a skeleton crew of an inexperienced supporting cast while dealing with some downright terrible coaching

Now he gets Daboll, who has squeezed the most out of young quarterbacks and leaned on young receivers mostly everywhere he’s been. Tate is a polished rookie who played against the best of the best at Ohio State, which just keeps churning out unbelievable wideouts. 

The “he wasn’t even a WR1 on his own team” narrative is lazy. Jeremiah Smith is an anomaly and is going to be a lottery pick next year; I’d challenge you to find another team in the country where Tate wouldn’t have been the WR1 last season.

The early returns in camp have been outstanding. Yes, the clips online of him gliding through the field and making contested catches are fun, but the beat writers have been raving, too. Ward even said in an interview that Daboll wants Tate in a position to “freelance” in this offense. That’s the kind of quote that gets me excited.

The Titans should be more competitive, but there’s no doubt they’ll be trailing in their fair share of games, which means the ball should be in the air. According to our guy Dwain McFarland’s Rookie Super Model, Tate posted a 95.7 score—fifth-best since 2018. Everything is lined up: high draft capital, clear path to targets, favorable game scripts and a play caller who gets it. Tate is in an absolute smash spot, and he’s my favorite non-quarterback on the board.

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OAK_raiders-logo.svgFernando Mendoza (+430)

Next up: Fernando Mendoza at +430.

There’s been some early noise that the Raiders want Kirk Cousins to start throughout the entire season. I’m not buying it. Mendoza was the de facto No. 1 overall pick, and he’s paired with new head coach Klint Kubiak, an offensive savant who was a gigantic piece of the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run. Look at how he reinvented Sam Darnold and unlocked Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Maybe Cousins is a brief bridge, but once the Raiders admit how much Cousins is holding the offense back, I believe the keys go to Mendoza sooner rather than later. I understand the classic “don’t put a rookie QB in a bad spot” line, but if you’re drafting him to be the guy, hiding him doesn’t always help him. At some point, you have to let him play.

I wish the Raiders had done more for him at wide receiver. Brock Bowers is going to be peppered with a bajillion targets, but the rest of the passing game is thin. That’s the ding on Mendoza. 

The reason he’s still a bet for me: timing. If we get even a whiff in camp that Mendoza has a nose ahead in the starting battle or that the Raiders are willing to thrust him into action early, this +430 number will vanish. It’s a number that assumes more Cousins than I think we’ll see. I want to get in before that shifts.

SF_49ers-logo.svgDe’Zhaun Stribling (+6000)

We’ll close with a true longshot: De’Zhaun Stribling at 60-1.

There’s been some really interesting coach speak around Stribling lately. The rumor mill says plenty of teams had him high on their boards, and the 49ers were ecstatic to snag him at 33rd overall. He doesn’t have the elite Rookie Super Model grade that Carnell Tate does, but ranking 65th since 2018 is still solid. And anybody who has a chance to see the field in a Kyle Shanahan offense has my attention at this price.

Look at the depth chart: Ricky Pearsall, Mike Evans, Christian Kirk, George Kittle. Household names, but all with durability concerns. Father Time is creeping on Evans and Kittle. Evans played just eight games in 2025 and 14 in 2024. Kittle is working his way back from a major injury. 

There are some paths for Stribling to see meaningful snaps if he picks up the offense, especially if one or two of those veterans miss time.

Yes, it’s asking a lot for Shanahan and John Lynch to fully trust a rookie, but if they like him half as much as they’ve implied, and they’re forced to lean on healthy talent, weird things can happen. This is by far my least favorite of the three picks—but the odds justify taking that swing.

Happy betting!

Players Mentioned in this Article

  1. CarnellTate
    WRTENTEN
    Proj
    157.8
  2. FernandoMendoza
    QBLVLV
    Proj
    178.7
  3. De'ZhaunStribling
    WRSFSF
    Proj
    63.8
  4. Tetairoa McMillan
    TetairoaMcMillan
    WRCARCAR
    PPG
    10.4
    Proj
    184.0

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