Players To Avoid In Fantasy Football: Lamar Jackson Headlines Freedman's 2026 Fades

I swear I'm a good time at parties. I can talk about craft beer and William Shakespeare with the best of them (and also the worst of them).

But for some reason, around the company watercooler I've developed a reputation as a "wet blanket" (I believe it was Dwain McFarland or Peter Overzet who first grievously misapplied this term to yours truly).

I'm not, in fact, a wet blanket.

I'm just a man who appreciates the power of pessimism.

You know, I just re-read that last sentence … I now get why people say I'm a wet blanket.

But in a world aflame, wet blankets have a purpose.

In my opinion, too many people in the fantasy football industry spend too much time hyping up too many players and not enough time contemplating the risk they carry and the odds that they'll underperform expectations.

So in this piece, I want to highlight 12 players I'm likely fading at cost (based on our fantasy football ADP tool) in redraft, best ball and Guillotine Leagues™.

To see more players I'm low on, check out our fantasy football rankings, accessible with the FantasyLife+ package (20% discount available with the promo code FREEDMAN).

First, though, since I believe so strongly in the nexus of negativity, I want to spend more time illuminating my thoughts on the virtues of skepticism.

The Value of Pessimism in Fantasy Football

Everyone wants to find "league winners," and I get that. It's a worthy endeavor. That's what I attempt to do in my Freedman's Favorites article.

But it's just as key to avoid "team killers": The players who will bury your fantasy season before it even starts.

And, actually, I think in many cases it's more important to avoid mistakes than to chase perfection.

In baseball, what's more important?

Getting a hit
Not getting out

If you want to stay alive, what's more beneficial?

Knowing where there's gold
Knowing where there's a landmine

In the Book of Genesis, the Hebrew God didn't give Adam and Eve a massive to-do list to stay alive. Instead, he gave them just one injunction: Stay away from the Tree of Knowledge of Good and Evil.

Over 10 years ago at FantasyLabs, I wrote a piece about the importance of strong inference. Even today, a decade later, I still believe that "falsification" (aka, "the scientific method") is just as crucial in winning fantasy as it is in creating knowledge.

In fantasy football, you can get pretty far—to the playoffs for sure, and sometimes all the way to a championship—merely by shunning the guys who suck.

In fantasy, as in life, it's essential to eliminate errors.

Thus, the goal of this piece is to identify and highlight guys who might be 2026 fantasy pitfalls.

Naturally, this is with ADP in mind: A guy might be a favorite in Round 3 but a fade in Round 1.

So I have different evaluative criteria for players based on ADP and where they fall in relation to comparable producers.

In general, I want to avoid the following types of players.

Guys at the top of a tier
Dudes who are super similar to someone significantly cheaper
Bros in Rounds 1-5 who have insecure or low floors
Fellas in Round 6 and beyond who have insufficient ceilings

I assume the logic for these guidelines requires no explanation. My life will just be simpler that way.

So let's get to what you really care about. Here are 12 men I'm avoiding for 2026 fantasy football.

Quarterbacks I'm Avoiding In 2026 Fantasy Football

Lamar Jackson | Ravens

If you're a Ravens fan, please don't hate me.

I love Lamar Jackson. I bet on him to win MVP at 80-1 in 2019.

I think he should've won MVP in 2024.

In my opinion, he has probably been the league's best QB over the past three seasons.

But 2026 is a new year, and with it come new circumstances. Gone are former HC John Harbaugh and OC Todd Monken. Maybe these changes will be positive, but Harbaugh championed Jackson early in his career, and Monken helped him become the NFL's most efficient passer over the past three years (9.4 AY/A).

There's no guarantee that first-time HC Jesse Minter (a defensive coach by trade) and new OC Declan Doyle (a first-time NFL playcaller) will create an environment that enables Jackson to flourish.

On top of that, Jackson has missed 14 games to injury over the past half-decade, and last season he had a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game. Now at 29 years old, the two-time MVP might be entering the downside of his Ravens tenure.

As long as he's healthy, I doubt Jackson will massively underperform, but he's priced as a premium QB, which gives me pause given all the uncertainty surrounding him.

If I'm paying up at QB, I'd rather pay a little more for Josh Allen or wait and pay a little less for Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels or even Jalen Hurts.

Bo Nix | Broncos

I recently talked about Bo Nix on an episode of Fantasy Football Is Life. I encourage you to check out the show for my full thoughts.

In this space, I'll simply say this: With the addition of WR Jaylen Waddle, Nix might improve in his third season. But I've been utterly unimpressed with what I've seen out of him through two years.

Since entering the league two years ago, Nix is No. 32 in AY/A (6.57), right below Jacoby Brissett (6.64) and ahead of Mac Jones (6.56). If not for solid rushing production (23.1 yards per game) and strong pass volume (an NFL-high 1,179 attempts), Nix wouldn't warrant consideration outside of superflex leagues.

But especially with his postseason ankle injury, I doubt Nix will catapult himself into the league's upper echelon of running QBs, and I believe I've seen enough out of Nix as a popgun operator to question his ability to improve meaningfully as a passer.

Plus, the transition to playcalling OC Davis Webb might not go as smoothly as expected for the Broncos offense.

Nix has a solid floor, but outside of the top 12 I'm looking for ceiling at the QB position, and I don't see it with Nix. Even if he does outperform his ADP, I doubt Nix will do so in such an extreme way as to make me regret passing on him for other QBs available later.

Baker Mayfield | Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield enters 2026 with his fourth play caller in four years with the Buccaneers, and now he's without former No. 1 WR Mike Evans.

New OC Zac Robinson (2024-25 Falcons) feels more like 2025 OC Josh Grizzard than 2023-24 OC Dave Canales and Liam Coen, who pushed Mayfield to back-to-back Pro Bowl campaigns (8.544 yards, 69 TDs) and landed HC gigs after just one year of calling plays in the NFL.

In our 2026 Fantasy Life projections, we expect Mayfield to have a performance this year very much in line with his last year.

2025 Statline: 3,693 yards, 26 TDs passing
2026 Projection: 3,715 yards, 25.9 TDs passing

That's not what I'm looking for in a late-round QB.

Running Backs To Avoid For 2026 Fantasy Football Rankings

Jonathan Taylor | Colts

I highlighted this one in a recent article on the season-long prop market: I'd rather take Derrick Henry in Round 2 than Jonathan Taylor in Round 1. Phrased differently: Arbitrage.

I don't actively dislike Taylor. He was great last year (1,963 yards, 20 TDs from scrimmage). And since his 2021 first-team All-Pro campaign, he has been an elite per-game producer (110.1 yards, 0.93 TDs).

But he has missed 16 games over the past half decade. The durability concerns are real.

But Henry has no durability concerns. He's old (32), but he has missed just one game over the past four seasons.

And since joining the Ravens two years ago, Henry has almost matched Taylor as a per-game scrimmage producer.

Henry: 113.5 yards | 1.0 TDs
Taylor: 117.7 yards | 1.07 TDs

Given their per-game similarity and Henry's Terminator-like durability, I find myself increasingly willing to bypass Taylor in favor of Henry later.

Breece Hall | Jets

Breece Hall is a good player. He flashed as a rookie (681 yards, 5 TDs in seven games), and in the three seasons since, he has averaged 1,453 yards and 7.3 TDs. At just 25 years old, Hall is still in his prime and capable of putting up similar numbers in 2026.

But capability and probability aren't the same.

New OC Frank Reich's last two NFL offenses (2022 Colts, 2023 Panthers) were bottom-three units in scoring. Sadly, the 2026 Jets might be worse than last year's 3-14 team.

As Dwain notes in his recent piece on what matters for RBs in fantasy football, stud RBs rarely play on teams with 0-4 wins. Thus, as a rule I'd rather avoid RBs on bad offenses if I can help it.

RJ Harvey | Broncos

RJ Harvey is the exact kind of RB I don't want.

On the surface, he might look good. He has decent draft capital (Round 2). Last year as a rookie, he was productive (896 yards, 12 TDs). And he has a three-down skill set (146 carries, 58 targets).

But his efficiency was puny (3.7 yards per carry), and his Utilization Score splits with No. 1 RB J.K. Dobbins were notable (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

With Dobbins (Weeks 1-10): 42
Without Dobbins (Weeks 1-10): 77

Here's why the splits are a problem: Even though the Broncos could've let Dobbins walk in free agency, they chose to re-sign him.

That's not at all a bullish indicator for Harvey, nor is the fact that the Broncos (despite not obviously needing another RB) decided to select Jonah Coleman this offseason as the No. 4 RB in the draft.

And with his ability to do lots of little things well (pass protection, ball security, hands catching, following blocks, contact balance), Coleman looks a lot like the kind of player (Aaron Stecker, Pierre Thomas, Mike Bell, Chris Ivory, Darren Sproles) HC Sean Payton allowed to force a three-man backfield committee with the Saints years ago.

With all that together, Harvey has way more downside and not as much upside as people might expect.

Wide Receivers I'm Avoiding In 2026 Fantasy Football

Tee Higgins | Bengals

Tee Higgins is the Don Felder to Ja'Marr Chase's Joe Walsh: He was in the band first, and he can solo … but who cares?

In their five years together, Chase has averaged 86.4 yards receiving per game without Higgins; Higgins, 90.3 without Chase. When allowed to serve as an alpha receiver, Higgins lives up to the billing.

The primary problem: With Chase, Higgins has 63.4 yards receiving per game. The secondary problem: Higgins has missed 16 games over the past half-decade.

The result: Higgins has never had more than 110 targets or 1,091 yards in a season.

Seemingly the only way he will crush his ADP is if Chase misses at least half the season and Higgins misses no more than a game. That feels like an unlikely parlay.

Assuming average health for both players, I expect Higgins to have a typical season of around 900 yards and nine TDs. Useful, and so close to the 1,000-10 benchmark, but unsexy.

Carnell Tate | Titans

Oh, baby. We are so back.

It feels as if it has been months since I bashed Carnell Tate on the regular during NFL draft season.

Finally, once again, I feel alive.

If you consumed my content in the lead-up to the draft, you likely remember that I was somewhat down on Tate as a prospect (relative to fellow rookie WR Jordyn Tyson, as an example).

I don't need to rehash here all the reasons I disliked Tate before the draft.

But I will.

First, though, let's start with the good stuff. He went to Ohio State as a five-star recruit, and he now enters the NFL with top-five draft capital. On top of that, he looks polished and professional on tape.

But here's the thing: Tate in college was never the No. 1 WR in his offense.

There's no shame in playing behind Marvin Harrison, Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, but he has never had a real breakout season. Last year, he was the No. 2 WR for the Buckeyes, and he had just 51-875-9 in 11 games. Of all the first-round WRs to emerge from Ryan Day's program, Tate was easily the least productive in college.

On top of that, he's not a great athlete. A 4.53-second 40-yard dash is modest, especially at only 192 pounds. And let's talk about his lean frame: At 6-foot-2 and 192 pounds, he's at risk of being pushed off his spot and disrupted in his routes by larger and aggressive press CBs.

In the NFL, I think he profiles more as a No. 2 WR than a No. 1 WR, but his ADP indicates that investors expect him to be a No. 1 WR right away for the Titans.

The Titans.

Gross.

The landing spot for Tate could've been worse … but not much worse.

The Titans have a defensive-minded HC in Robert Saleh, who could want a conservative offense. OC Brian Daboll is an upgrade on departed playcalling HC Brian Callahan, but he still hasn't impressed without QB Josh Allen.

QB Cam Ward was extremely uneven last year as a rookie. He should improve, but even then that might not be enough. The team added target hog WR Wan'Dale Robinson, who has a history with Daboll, and it retained WR Calvin Ridley, who had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons before struggling through an injury-impacted campaign last year.

So it's not probable, but it's possible that Tate as a rookie could be the third-best WR on his own team … and it's likely to be a bad team.

I would rather draft almost every other WR going in his draft range.

Jordan Addison | Vikings

Here's my issue with Jordan Addison: These are the three guys directly ahead of and behind him in ADP.

Quentin Johnston: 106.4
Ricky Pearsall: 108.9
Jakobi Meyers: 109.3
Jordan Addison: 109.9
Wan'Dale Robinson: 110.4
Jayden Reed: 112.1
Josh Downs: 112.1

All of them have better odds than he does of finishing the season as the No. 1 WR on their respective teams.

Unless No. 1 WR Justin Jefferson misses half the year, Addison has no chance to lead his team in receiving.

And why would I want to roster a guy with zero shot to be his team's No. 1 WR?

I wouldn't.

Tight Ends I'm Avoiding In Fantasy Football 2026

Trey McBride | Cardinals

Trey McBride over the past two years is No. 2 in the league in targets (316) and receptions (237) and No. 6 in receiving yards (2,385), and last season he leveled up his game with 11 TDs.

Here's the thing: I think he's in the same tier with TE Brock Bowers, and we actually have Bowers projected ahead of McBride.

But on ESPN and Sleeper, McBride goes as the No. 1 TE off the board.

I think that's wrong.

Phrased differently: If you're in a league where Bowers goes as the No. 1 TE, then it's probably fine to select McBride, because I do expect him to have a good season. But if you jump the gun by taking McBride as the No. 1 TE, you're probably making a mistake and revealing yourself to be one uncool customer.

George Kittle | 49ers

I love George Kittle. He's a verified boss.

But he turns 33 years old in October and is coming off a postseason Achilles tear.

It's cool that Kittle, HC Kyle Shanahan, and GM John Lynch are all optimistic that the TE will be ready by Week 1.

But almost no player (especially an older one) has returned from an Achilles injury and immediately picked up where he left off.

Currently on the PUP, Kittle might miss the first month of the season, and upon return, he could be a notably sluggish version of himself.

Injuries happen to NFL players. When guys get hurt in the middle of the year, there's nothing you can do except curse the gods of pigskin.

But when you draft someone who is already less than 100% entering the season, you're ultimately the progenitor of your own preventable problems.

Jake Ferguson | Cowboys

In each of the past two seasons, Jake Ferguson has averaged 35.3 yards per game, and over that time he has exhibited some woeful efficiency (5.8 yards per target).

That's not gonna cut it in 2026.

I could write 300 more words about this, but what's the point?

Players Mentioned in this Article

LamarJackson
QBBAL
PPG
16.3
Proj
332.8
BoNixQ
QBDEN
PPG
18.2
Proj
296.5
BakerMayfield
QBTB
PPG
15.5
Proj
280.7
JonathanTaylor
RBIND
PPG
19.7
Proj
281.4

Published Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 AM ETUpdated Jul 30, 2026, 9:11 AM ET